MA Dept. of Education inflates MCAS pass rates for classes of 2005 and 2006, masking wide opportunity and achievement gapsJuly 6, 2005
MCAS "pass rates" as reported on July 6, 2005 by the Massachusetts Department of Education (see http://www.doe.mass.edu/news/news.asp?id=2470) and http://www.doe.mass.edu/mcas/2005/results/CDreport_0605.pdf) inflate MCAS "success" and continue to mask large gaps in opportunity across student groups for the state's Classes of 2005 and 2006.
*** When the numbers passing MCAS are calculated to account for all students -- that is, when the fate of all students who were originally enrolled at the beginning of high school, in the 9th grade of their class are taken into account -- only three-quarters of all students from each class have passed MCAS.
*** Latino and African American students pass MCAS at even lower rates than their peers statewide, widening opportunity gaps, limiting their access to future educational opportunity, and making unequal education opportunity the norm across the state. On-time MCAS pass rates show the opportunity gap between white and Latino students, for example, to be 30 percentage points, not 12 percentage points.
Specifically (see specific numbers at the end of this summary):
On-time MCAS pass rates for all students show that:
** For the Massachusetts Class of 2005, 76.6% (not 94%) of the original class have passed MCAS.
** For the Massachusetts Class of 2006, 76.2% (not 90%) of the original class have passed MCAS.
On-time MCAS pass rates also show wide disparities among different groups of students. These disparities highlight continuing and large disparities in opportunity to learn and in opportunity for high school graduation and future opportunity.
On-time MCAS pass rates, by race, show:
Class of 2005: Percentage of students passing MCAS and in line to graduate on time
*** 82.5% of white students have passed MCAS (not 97% as DOE reports);
*** 82.7% of Asian students have passed MCAS (not 95% as DOE reports);
*** 61.6% of African American students have passed MCAS (not 85% as DOE reports)
*** 51.0% of Latino students have passed MCAS (not 85% as DOE reports)
Class of 2006: Percentage of students passing MCAS and in line to graduate on time:
*** 83.6% of white students have passed MCAS (not 94% as DOE reports)
*** 80.5% of Asian students have passed MCAS (not 91% as DOE reports)
*** 55.7% of African American students have passed MCAS (not 75% as DOE reports)
*** 46.5% of Latino student have passed MCAS (not 71% as DOE reports)
The problem: The Massachusetts Department of Education calculates MCAS "pass rates" by dividing the number of students passing MCAS by the number of students enrolled in the class at the time of the report. Thus, DOE pass rates are misleading because they accounts only for students who have progressed on time with their classmates. As students are shed from the class, the "pass rate" climbs, regardless of whether or not additional students pass MCAS. The more students who leave the class after enrolling in ninth grade -- whether by dropping out, being held back in grade, or transferring out of state -- the higher the pass rate.
The DOE method thus eliminates from the "MCAS picture" all students who are no longer enrolled with their original 9th grade class. Because the Department of Education does not account for the fate of all students, DOE "pass rates" are a misleading indicator of student achievement and opportunity.
Need for accurate accounting: MCAS on-time pass rates more accurately describe the achievement, progress, and opportunity of students in each class because they account for all students who were orginally enrolled in the 9th grade of a given class. This method divides the number of students passing MCAS by the number who were originally enrolled with that class in 9th grade.
Recommendation: The Massachusetts Department of Education should recalculate all MCAS pass rates to account for all students who begin high school in the 9th grade with the class.
MCAS on-time pass rate, Class of 2005
**** The Massachusetts Department of Education reports that 61,594 students in the class of 2005 have passed MCAS, reporting a "pass rate" of 94%, for the class of 2005.
- But 80,395 students were originally enrolled in the class of 2005, beginning in grade 9, in October 2001. The real, on-time MCAS pass rate for ALL students is 76.6%, not 94%.
**** The MA DOE reports that 48,865 WHITE students have passed MCAS, a DOE pass rate of 97%;
- But 59,261 white students were enrolled in grade 9 in October 2001. The real, on-time MCAS pass rate for white students is 82.5%, not 97%.
**** The MA DOE reports that 2,971 ASIAN students have passed MCAS, a DOE pass rate of 95%;
- But 3,592 Asian students were enrolled in grade 9 in October 2001. The real, on-time MCAS pass rate for Asian students is 82.7%, not 95%.
**** The MA DOE reports that 4,816 AFRICAN AMERICAN students have passed MCAS, a DOE pass rate of 85%;
- But 7,820 African American students were enrolled in grade 9 in October 2001. The real, on-time MCAS pass rate for African American students is 61.6%, not 85%.
**** The MA DOE reports that 4,733 LATINO students have passed MCAS, a DOE pass rate of 85%;
- But 9,285 Latino students were enrolled in grade 9 in October 2001. The real, on-time MCAS pass rate for Latino students is 51.0%, not 85%.
MCAS on-time pass rate, Class of 2006
**** The Massachusetts Department of Education reports that 62,529 students in the Class of 2006 have passed MCAS, reporting a "pass rate" of 90% for the Class of 2006.
- But 82,071 students were originally enrolled in the class of 2006, beginning in grade 9, in October 2002. The real, on-time MCAS pass rate for ALL students is 76.2%, not 90%.
**** The MA DOE reports that 50,245 WHITE students have passed MCAS, a DOE pass rate of 94%;
- But 60,095 white students were enrolled in grade 9 in October 2002. The real, on-time MCAS pass rate for white students is 83.6%, not 94%.
**** The MA DOE reports that 2,989 ASIAN students have passed MCAS, a DOE pass rate of 91%;
- But 3,712 Asian students were enrolled in grade 9 in October 2002. The real, on-time MCAS pass rate for Asian students is 80.5%, not 91%.
**** The MA DOE reports that 4,521 AFRICAN AMERICAN students have passed MCAS, a DOE pass rate of 75%;
- But 8,117 African American students were enrolled in grade 9 in October 2002. The real, on-time MCAS pass rate for African American students is 55.7%, not 75%.
**** The MA DOE reports that 4,589 LATINO students have passed MCAS, a DOE pass rate of 71%;
- But 9,874 Latino students were enrolled in grade 9 in October 2002. The real, on-time MCAS pass rate for Latino students is 46.5%, not 71%.
Anne Wheelock, Progress Through the Education Pipeline, Boston College and Independent Education Policy Analyst
617-524-7324
Chart by Steve Johnson, an advocate in Charlotte-Mecklenburg, North Carolina
