Graduation rate projected for the Massachusetts Class of 2003 lowest in years

The following is distilled from the DOE report "Trend Analysis of High School Enrollment, Dropout, and Grade Retention Over Time." The full report is posted at http://www.doe.mass.edu/infoservices/reports/c03_analysis.html.

Enrollment data released by the Department of Education on Wednesday, October 9, 2002, show that about 29% of those who started high school with the class of 2003 -- those enrolled 9th grade in 1999 - - might not be graduating with their classmates in June 2003.

The Class of 2003 is the first class required to pass the Massachusetts Comprehensive Assessment System (MCAS) tests in order to receive a high school diploma.

At 71.0%, the projected graduation rate for the Massachusetts Class of 2003 is about the same as that for Kentucky and lower than Arkansas's (according to figures compiled by Jay Greene of the Manhattan Institute; see http://www.manhattan-institute.org/html/cr_baeo_t2.htm

  States with graduation rates in the range projected for the Massachusetts Class of 2003 include:
- Hawaii (69%)
- Louisiana (69%)
- Kentucky (71%)
- Arkansas (72%) and
- Delaware (73%)

*With a decline in the graduation rate from 77% to 71%:
Massachusetts leaves the company of such states as:
Connecticut (75%), Michigan (75%), Maryland (75%), New Jersey (75%), Kansas (76%), Ohio (77%), and Maine (78%) and

approaches the company of such states as:
Texas (67%), Alaska (67%), and New Mexico (65%).

*The projected 71.0% graduation rate assumes that 55,185 students from the Class of 2003 will pass MCAS and graduate (See DOE graph attached to the "Trend Analysis..." titled "Massachusetts Historic State High School Completion Rates.") In October 1999, 77,733 students enrolled in the Class of 2003 in 9th grade. The Class of 2003 is the first class required to pass MCAS in order to graduate.

* The graduation rate for the Class of 2002 was 76.8%, representing 57,341 students out of 74,668 students enrolled in the Class of 2002 in 9th grade in October 1998.

* The drop in the graduation rate from 76.8% to 71.0% represents a difference of 2,156 between the graduating class of 2002 and 2003.

* For the seven classes before MCAS determined graduation, graduation rates were never lower than 74.8% (for the Class of 2000) or higher than 76.8% (for the Class of 2002).

* The final graduation rate could be considerably lower than the projected rate, depending on how many more students pass MCAS.  As of April 2003, some 6,000 of the 60,781 seniors remaining in the class of 2003 still have not passed MCAS.