RISING STUDENT ATTRITION BETWEEN GRADES 9 and 10 PROPS UP MCAS
SCORES
A six-year picture of Massachusetts students "lost"
between grades 9 and 10 strongly suggests that slight increases in MCAS
scores for the Class of 2004 (see, for example, news reports
at
http://www.s-t.com/daily/08-02/08-30-02/a01sr003.htm
and http://www.masslive.com/news/unionnews/index.ssf?/news/pstories/ae830mca.html) do not necessarily reflect improved student learning but more likely the loss of the most vulnerable students from the testing pool between grades 9 and 10.
Changes in the testing pool, specifically those that suggest that fewer low-scoring students are taking the tests - in all likelihood because they have dropped out or been retained in 9th grade - can artificially boost 10th grade scores. Clearly, more and more students are being "lost" from the entering high school cohort. DOE itself reports a rising in 9th grade dropout rates and notes that fewer students who drop out in 9th grade are returning to school. These students go missing before they reach the point of taking MCAS with their class. This trend is
artificially propping up MCAS scores.
Any apparent closing of the achievement (as defined by MCAS scores) is occurring at the same time that the gap in grade 9-10 attrition - the rate of students who are lost from their class between grades 9 and 10 -- is widening.
An analysis of data by Walt Haney of Boston College's Center for the Student of Testing, Evaluation, and Education Policy's Progress Through the Education Pipeline Project describes this trend for all Massachusetts students and by race for the Classes of 1999-2004. Student loss is climbing for all students, but the loss of students from the cohorts is steepest for African American and Latino students.
* In the years before MCAS, which was introduced in 1997, only around 6-7% of students turned up missing between grades 9 and 10.
* By 2001, the rate at which students were missing from grade 10 had nearly doubled, to 12.4%.
* For African American and Hispanic students, the missing rates skyrocketed even more: For African American students the rate tripled, from a little over 7% to almost 24% in just five years. The rate at which Hispanics were missing from grade 10 nearly doubled, from 17% to 29%.
Summary data for six years are as follows:
Massachusetts student attrition from grade 9-10, all students, African American and Latino students, Classes of 1999-2004
* The Class of 1999 lost 6.5% of all students, 7.3% of African American students, and 16.8% of Latino students between grades 9 and 10.
* The Class of 2000 lost 7.1% of all students, 7.4% of African American students, and 22.0% of Latino students between grade 9 and 10.
* The Class of 2001 lost 8.0% of all students, 9.8% of African American students, and 23.5% of Latino students between grades 9 and 10.
* The Class of 2002 lost 8.2% of all students, 11.2% of African American students, and and 21.3% of Latino students between grades 9 and 10.
* The Class of 2003 lost 10.7% of all students, 19.9% of African American students, and 19.5% of Latino students between grade 9 and 10.
* The Class of 2004 lost 12.4% of all students, 23.6% of African American students, and 28.6% of Latino students between grades 9 and 10.
Variations in the patterns of grade 9-10 attrition reflect not only what happens to students in their ninth grade year alone but also their school experiences prior to ninth grade, especially retention in the earlier grades. Beginning in the mid-1990s, retention in the elementary grades increased in many Massachusetts districts, especially urban districts. Elementary grade retentions are like time bombs; they don't explode into higher dropout rates immediately. However, as grade retentions accumulate, they ignite higher dropout rates when increasing numbers of overage students turn 16 in the ninth and tenth grades. With current dropout data showing the ninth grade dropout rate climbing and fewer dropouts returning in Massachusetts, it appears that the tenth grade MCAS graduation requirement is a barrier to student progress into the later high school grades for the state's most vulnerable students.
The numbers of students "lost" from six recent cohorts of students in Massachusetts follow:
Massachusetts student attrition, All students, African American students, Latino students
Massachusetts Class of 1999 - ALL students:
Enrolled in 9th grade, October 1, 1995: 68,623
Enrolled in 10th grade, October 1, 1996: 62,856
Students "lost" between grades 9 and 10: 4,441 students
Percentage "lost" from the Class of 1999 between grades 9 and 10: 6.5%
Massachusetts Class of 2000 - ALL students:
Enrolled in 9th grade, October 1, 1996: 70,811
Enrolled in 10th grade, October 1, 1997: 64,182
Students "lost" between grade 9 and 10: 5,018 students
Percentage "lost" from the Class of 2000 between grades 9 and 10: 7.1%
Massachusetts Class of 2001 ALL students:
Enrolled in 9th grade, October 1, 1997: 71,593
Enrolled in 10th grade, October 1, 1998: 65,793
Students "lost" between grades 9 and 10: 5,800
Percentage "lost" from the Class of 2001 between grades 9 and 10: 8.0%
Massachusetts Class of 2002 - ALL students:
Enrolled in 9th grade, October 1, 1998: 74,668
Enrolled in 10th grade, October 1, 1999: 68,577
Students "lost" between grades 9 and 10: 6,091 students
Percentage "lost" from the Class of 2002 between grades 9 and 10: 8.2%
Massachusetts Class of 2003 - ALL students:
Enrolled in 9th grade, October 1, 1999: 77,733
Enrolled in 10th grade, October 1, 2000: 69,447
Students "lost" between grade 9 and 10: 8,286 students
Percentage "lost" from the Class of 2003 between grades 9 and 10: 10.7%
Massachusetts Class of 2004 ALL students:
Enrolled in 9th grade, October 1, 2000: 79,570
Enrolled in 10th grade, October 1, 2001: 69,692
Students "lost" between grades 9 and 10: 9,878
Percentage "lost" from the Class of 2004 between grades 9 and 10: 12.4%
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Massachusetts Class of 1999 - AFRICAN AMERICAN students:
Enrolled in 9th grade, October 1, 1995: 5,862
Enrolled in 10th grade, October 1, 1996: 5,331
Students "lost" between grades 9 and 10: 430 students
Percentage "lost" from the Class of 1999 between grades 9 and 10: 7.3%
Massachusetts Class of 2000 - AFRICAN AMERICAN students:
Enrolled in 9th grade, October 1, 1996: 6,036
Enrolled in 10th grade, October 1, 1997: 5,432
Students "lost" between grade 9 and 10: 447 students
Percentage "lost" from the Class of 2000 between grades 9 and 10: 7.4%
Massachusetts Class of 2001 AFRICAN AMERICAN students:
Enrolled in 9th grade, October 1, 1997: 6,366
Enrolled in 10th grade, October 1, 1998: 5,589
Students "lost" between grades 9 and 10: 621
Percentage "lost" from the Class of 2001 between grades 9 and 10: 9.8%
Massachusetts Class of 2002 - AFRICAN AMERICAN
Enrolled in 9th grade, October 1, 1998: 7,003
Enrolled in 10th grade, October 1, 1999: 5,813
Students "lost" between grade 9 and 10: 736 students
Percentage "lost" from the Class of 2002 between grades 9 and 10: 11.2%
Massachusetts Class of 2003 - AFRICAN AMERICAN students
Enrolled in 9th grade, October 1, 1999: 7,673
Enrolled in 10th grade, October 1, 2000: 5,610
Students "lost" between grade 9 and 10: 1,393 students
Percentage "lost" from the Class of 2003 between grades 9 and 10: 19.9%
Massachusetts Class of 2004 - AFRICAN AMERICAN students:
Enrolled in 9th grade, October 1, 2000: 7,820
Enrolled in 10th grade, October 1, 2001: 5,866
Students "lost" between grades 9 and 10: 1,807
Percentage "lost" from the Class of 2004 between grades 9 and 10: 23.6%
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Massachusetts Class of 1999 - LATINO students:
Enrolled in 9th grade, October 1, 1995: 6,839
Enrolled in 10th grade, October 1, 1996: 5,514
Students "lost" between grades 9 and 10: 1,146 students
Percentage "lost" from the Class of 1999 between grades 9 and 10: 16.8%
Massachusetts Class of 2000 - LATINO students:
Enrolled in 9th grade, October 1, 1996: 7,310
Enrolled in 10th grade, October 1, 1997: 5,693
Students "lost" between grade 9 and 10: 1,611 students
Percentage "lost" from the Class of 2000 between grades 9 and 10: 22.0%
Massachusetts Class of 2001 LATINO students:
Enrolled in 9th grade, October 1, 1997: 7,623
Enrolled in 10th grade, October 1, 1998: 5,699
Students "lost" between grades 9 and 10: 1,789
Percentage "lost" from the Class of 2001 between grades 9 and 10: 23.5%
Massachusetts Class of 2002 - LATINO
Enrolled in 9th grade, October 1, 1998: 8,313
Enrolled in 10th grade, October 1, 1999: 6,074
Students "lost" between grade 9 and 10: 1,647 students
Percentage "lost" from the Class of 2002 between grades 9 and 10: 21.3%
Massachusetts Class of 2003 - LATINO
Enrolled in 9th grade, October 1, 1999: 9,073
Enrolled in 10th grade, October 1, 2000: 6,693
Students "lost" between grade 9 and 10: 1,620 students
Percentage "lost" from the Class of 2003 between grades 9 and 10: 19.5%
Massachusetts Class of 2004 - LATINO
Enrolled in 9th grade, October 1, 2000: l9,285
Enrolled in 10th grade, October 1, 2001: 6,481
Students "lost" between grade 9 and 10: 2,592 students
Percentage "lost" from the Class of 2004 between grades 9 and 10: 28.6%